Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC preview
In the Liga Pro fixture, Tecnico Universitario has a 33% chance of winning, while Mushuc Runa SC stands at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% probability. Tecnico Universitario's expected goals are 1.00, compared to Mushuc Runa SC's 1.23.
Both teams to score has a 46% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 39%. Recent form shows Tecnico Universitario with two losses and a draw in their last five matches, while Mushuc Runa SC has three draws in their last five. The head-to-head record indicates Tecnico Universitario has 1 win, 2 draws, and Mushuc Runa SC has 3 wins in their last 6 encounters.
Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC: model vs market
| Source | Tecnico Universitario | Draw | Mushuc Runa SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Published | 33% | 31% | 37% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.64, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mushuc Runa SC, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.01 | -0.09 |
| Mushuc Runa SC | 2.59 | 2.60 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tecnico Universitario and Mushuc Runa SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Tecnico Universitario / Mushuc Runa SC)
- 0.75 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Tecnico Universitario / Mushuc Runa SC)
- 1.28 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tecnico Universitario goals. Columns: Mushuc Runa SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tecnico Universitario | 33% | 3.06 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Mushuc Runa SC | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tecnico Universitario or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Mushuc Runa SC) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mushuc Runa SC win by 2+ | 18% | 5.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tecnico Universitario and Mushuc Runa SC recent form
Tecnico Universitario
1W 1D 4L
Mushuc Runa SC
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tecnico Universitario at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-8
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mushuc Runa SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-8
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.65
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Tecnico Universitario at home only, Mushuc Runa SC away only.
Tecnico Universitario vs Mushuc Runa SC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Tecnico Universitario 1 · draws 2 · Mushuc Runa SC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Tecnico Universitario | 0-3 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-18 | Mushuc Runa SC | 1-0 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2025-11-22 | Mushuc Runa SC | 1-0 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2025-11-01 | Tecnico Universitario | 0-0 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-27 | Mushuc Runa SC | 0-1 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2025-04-06 | Tecnico Universitario | 1-1 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
Other Relegation Group - 4 fixtures
- Manta FC v Deportivo Cuenca — match page 2026-10-24
- Orense SC vs Delfin SC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Tecnico Universitario, previous: Deportivo Cuenca v Tecnico Universitario analysis
- Mushuc Runa SC, previous: Mushuc Runa SC – Orense SC, 2026-10-19