Updated

Primera Division · Apertura - 10

FAS vs Alianza

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was FAS to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FASDrawAlianza

FAS vs Alianza: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFASDrawAlianza
Model56%24%20%
Market55%26%19%
Published55%25%19%
Edge+1%-1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FAS vs Alianza odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FAS, 5 snapshots since 2026-09-11.

Opened 1.83Now 1.65 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FAS1.831.65-0.18
Draw3.183.52+0.34
Alianza3.914.71+0.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FAS and Alianza expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89FAS
1.06Alianza
Total expected goals
2.95
Attack rating (FAS / Alianza)
1.29 / 1.16
Defence rating (FAS / Alianza)
0.72 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FAS vs Alianza score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 4.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 1 8.8% 11.5% 5.6% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 5.9% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 4.3% 4.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: FAS goals. Columns: Alianza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FAS vs Alianza goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FAS vs Alianza

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FAS55%1.81
Draw25%3.93
Alianza19%5.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.77
Under 2.543%2.31
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (FAS or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Alianza)45%2.23
Handicap -1FAS win by 2+33%3.04
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FAS and Alianza recent form

FAS 4W 2D 0L
Alianza 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FAS at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-0
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
0.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).

Alianza away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-2
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: FAS at home only, Alianza away only.

FAS vs Alianza head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FAS 3 · draws 3 · Alianza 4.

FASDrawsAlianza
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Alianza0-2FASPrimera Division
2026-02-15FAS3-1AlianzaPrimera Division
2025-10-26FAS2-2AlianzaPrimera Division
2025-08-24Alianza2-0FASPrimera Division
2025-04-06Alianza1-0FASPrimera Division
2025-02-09FAS1-1AlianzaPrimera Division
2024-11-17FAS4-1AlianzaPrimera Division
2024-09-15Alianza1-0FASPrimera Division
2024-05-22Alianza2-1FASPrimera Division
2024-05-19FAS1-1AlianzaPrimera Division

Before and after this match