Primera Division · Apertura - 14

FAS vs Inca Aruba

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was FAS to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FASDrawInca Aruba

FAS vs Inca Aruba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFASDrawInca Aruba
Model65%23%13%
Market———
Published65%23%13%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FAS and Inca Aruba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.98FAS
0.77Inca Aruba
Total expected goals
2.75
Attack rating (FAS / Inca Aruba)
1.34 / 0.85
Defence rating (FAS / Inca Aruba)
0.71 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FAS vs Inca Aruba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 4.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1 11.7% 10.7% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 8.3% 6.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 6.4% 4.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: FAS goals. Columns: Inca Aruba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FAS vs Inca Aruba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FAS vs Inca Aruba

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FAS65%1.55
Draw23%4.43
Inca Aruba13%7.83
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.07
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.12
No53%1.90
Double chance1X (FAS or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Inca Aruba)35%2.83
Handicap -1FAS win by 2+41%2.46
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FAS and Inca Aruba recent form

FAS 5W 1D 0L
Inca Aruba 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FAS at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).

Inca Aruba away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: FAS at home only, Inca Aruba away only.

FAS vs Inca Aruba head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: FAS 1 · draws 0 · Inca Aruba 0.

FASDrawsInca Aruba
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-02Inca Aruba0-4FASPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 14 fixtures