Primera Division · Apertura - 14

Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Inter to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
InterDrawFuerte San Francisco

Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInterDrawFuerte San Francisco
Model61%26%13%
Market60%24%17%
Published60%24%16%
Edge+1%+3%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.64.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Inter, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-02.

Opened 1.46Now 1.52 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Inter1.461.52+0.06
Draw3.953.83-0.12
Fuerte San Francisco6.005.40-0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Inter and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65Inter
0.64Fuerte San Francisco
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (Inter / Fuerte San Francisco)
1.01 / 0.61
Defence rating (Inter / Fuerte San Francisco)
0.82 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.2% 5.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1 15.7% 11.8% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2 13.8% 8.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3 7.6% 4.8% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 4.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Inter60%1.67
Draw24%4.12
Fuerte San Francisco16%6.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.50
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.55
No61%1.64
Double chance1X (Inter or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Fuerte San Francisco)40%2.50
Handicap -1Inter win by 2+35%2.89
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inter and Fuerte San Francisco recent form

Inter 1W 3D 2L
Fuerte San Francisco 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inter at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Fuerte San Francisco away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.57
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Fuerte San Francisco away only.

Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Inter 2 · draws 3 · Fuerte San Francisco 0.

InterDrawsFuerte San Francisco
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01Fuerte San Francisco2-2InterPrimera Division
2026-03-18Fuerte San Francisco0-0InterPrimera Division
2026-01-22Inter2-0Fuerte San FranciscoPrimera Division
2025-09-24Fuerte San Francisco2-3InterPrimera Division
2025-07-24Inter0-0Fuerte San FranciscoPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 14 fixtures