Cacahuatique vs Águila: model vs market
| Source | Cacahuatique | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 30% | 44% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Published | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Edge | -34% | +7% | +28% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cacahuatique vs Águila odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cacahuatique, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cacahuatique | 1.55 | 1.52 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.76 | +0.04 |
| Águila | 5.00 | 5.45 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cacahuatique and Águila expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Cacahuatique / Águila)
- 0.73 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Cacahuatique / Águila)
- 1.02 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cacahuatique vs Águila score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cacahuatique goals. Columns: Águila goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cacahuatique vs Águila goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cacahuatique vs Águila
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cacahuatique | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Águila | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cacahuatique or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Águila) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cacahuatique win by 2+ | 9% | 10.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cacahuatique and Águila recent form
Cacahuatique
1W 1D 4L
Águila
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cacahuatique at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-5
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
Águila away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cacahuatique at home only, Águila away only.
Cacahuatique vs Águila head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Cacahuatique 1 · draws 5 · Águila 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Cacahuatique | 2-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-26 | Cacahuatique | 0-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-01 | Águila | 1-1 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-09 | Cacahuatique | 1-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-07 | Águila | 0-3 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2025-03-15 | Águila | 4-2 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2025-01-19 | Cacahuatique | 0-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-03 | Águila | 3-1 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2024-09-01 | Cacahuatique | 0-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
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- Alianza v Firpo — match page 2026-10-04
- Platense vs Municipal Limeño — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco 2026-10-04
- FAS v Inca Aruba — match page 2026-10-05