Alianza vs Firpo: model vs market
| Source | Alianza | Draw | Firpo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 26% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Published | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Edge | -17% | -4% | +21% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Firpo below the model: +21.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Alianza vs Firpo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Firpo, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza | 2.75 | 2.60 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.05 | -0.10 |
| Firpo | 2.42 | 2.55 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza and Firpo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Alianza / Firpo)
- 1.16 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Alianza / Firpo)
- 1.04 / 0.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza vs Firpo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza goals. Columns: Firpo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza vs Firpo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza vs Firpo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 30% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Firpo | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Firpo) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win by 2+ | 32% | 3.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alianza and Firpo recent form
Alianza
3W 3D 0L
Firpo
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Firpo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza at home only, Firpo away only.
Alianza vs Firpo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alianza 4 · draws 4 · Firpo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Firpo | 2-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-25 | Alianza | 2-3 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2025-12-21 | Firpo | 0-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-28 | Firpo | 0-5 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-27 | Alianza | 3-3 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-10 | Firpo | 0-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-13 | Alianza | 2-1 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2024-10-13 | Firpo | 0-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2024-09-26 | Alianza | 3-0 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2024-08-14 | Alianza | 5-2 | Firpo | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
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