Primera Division · Apertura - 14

Platense vs Municipal Limeño

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Municipal Limeño to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PlatenseDrawMunicipal Limeño

Platense vs Municipal Limeño: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePlatenseDrawMunicipal Limeño
Model27%30%43%
Market31%28%41%
Published30%29%41%
Edge-4%+1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Municipal Limeño below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Platense vs Municipal Limeño odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Municipal Limeño, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-02.

Opened 2.21Now 2.21 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Platense2.942.90-0.04
Draw3.183.16-0.02
Municipal Limeño2.212.21+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Platense and Municipal Limeño expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.04Platense
1.38Municipal Limeño
Total expected goals
2.42
Attack rating (Platense / Municipal Limeño)
0.74 / 1.01
Defence rating (Platense / Municipal Limeño)
1.06 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Platense vs Municipal Limeño score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 10.9% 8.4% 3.9% 1.8% 1 8.0% 14.0% 8.8% 4.0% 1.9% 2 4.8% 6.7% 4.6% 2.1% 1.0% 3 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Platense goals. Columns: Municipal Limeño goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Platense vs Municipal Limeño goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Platense vs Municipal Limeño

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Platense30%3.33
Draw29%3.48
Municipal Limeño41%2.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.29
Under 2.556%1.77
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Platense or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Municipal Limeño)70%1.43
Handicap -1Municipal Limeño win by 2+21%4.75
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Platense and Municipal Limeño recent form

Platense 1W 1D 4L
Municipal Limeño 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Platense at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.

Municipal Limeño away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-4
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Platense at home only, Municipal Limeño away only.

Platense vs Municipal Limeño head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Platense 0 · draws 4 · Municipal Limeño 6.

PlatenseDrawsMunicipal Limeño
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-01Municipal Limeño1-1PlatensePrimera Division
2026-03-19Municipal Limeño2-0PlatensePrimera Division
2026-03-11Platense1-2Municipal LimeñoCopa Presidente
2026-01-21Platense0-1Municipal LimeñoPrimera Division
2025-09-25Municipal Limeño1-0PlatensePrimera Division
2025-07-23Platense1-1Municipal LimeñoPrimera Division
2025-04-13Municipal Limeño3-2PlatensePrimera Division
2025-02-16Platense1-1Municipal LimeñoPrimera Division
2024-11-10Municipal Limeño2-0PlatensePrimera Division
2024-09-08Platense1-1Municipal LimeñoPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 14 fixtures