Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa: model vs market
| Source | Isidro Metapán | Draw | Atletico Balboa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Published | 59% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | -13% | +7% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Isidro Metapán, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isidro Metapán | 1.50 | 1.44 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.92 | +0.12 |
| Atletico Balboa | 5.50 | 5.95 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Isidro Metapán and Atletico Balboa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Isidro Metapán / Atletico Balboa)
- 0.92 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Isidro Metapán / Atletico Balboa)
- 0.81 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Isidro Metapán goals. Columns: Atletico Balboa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Isidro Metapán | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Atletico Balboa | 17% | 6.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Isidro Metapán or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Balboa) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win by 2+ | 25% | 4.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Isidro Metapán and Atletico Balboa recent form
Isidro Metapán
2W 1D 3L
Atletico Balboa
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Isidro Metapán at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Atletico Balboa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Isidro Metapán at home only, Atletico Balboa away only.
Isidro Metapán vs Atletico Balboa head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Isidro Metapán 0 · draws 1 · Atletico Balboa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Atletico Balboa | 0-0 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
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- Alianza v Firpo — match page 2026-10-04
- Platense vs Municipal Limeño — team news & stats 2026-10-04
- Inter vs Fuerte San Francisco 2026-10-04
- FAS v Inca Aruba — match page 2026-10-05