FAS vs Isidro Metapán: model vs market
| Source | FAS | Draw | Isidro Metapán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.24.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FAS, 6 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAS | 2.01 | 2.13 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 2.94 | 3.10 | +0.17 |
| Isidro Metapán | 3.85 | 3.10 | -0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FAS and Isidro Metapán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (FAS / Isidro Metapán)
- 1.25 / 1.13
- Defence rating (FAS / Isidro Metapán)
- 0.85 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FAS goals. Columns: Isidro Metapán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FAS vs Isidro Metapán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FAS | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Isidro Metapán | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FAS or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Isidro Metapán) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | FAS win by 2+ | 26% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FAS and Isidro Metapán recent form
FAS
4W 1D 1L
Isidro Metapán
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FAS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
Isidro Metapán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FAS at home only, Isidro Metapán away only.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FAS 4 · draws 3 · Isidro Metapán 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Isidro Metapán | 2-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-15 | Isidro Metapán | 0-3 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-18 | FAS | 2-2 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-21 | Isidro Metapán | 2-3 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-20 | FAS | 1-0 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-13 | Isidro Metapán | 3-1 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-16 | FAS | 0-0 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2024-12-15 | Isidro Metapán | 0-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2024-12-12 | FAS | 2-1 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2024-10-13 | Isidro Metapán | 2-1 | FAS | Primera Division |
Before and after this match
- FAS, previous: FAS – Platense, 2026-10-18
- FAS, next: Águila v FAS analysis
- Isidro Metapán, previous: Isidro Metapán v Fuerte San Francisco analysis
- Isidro Metapán, next: Alianza – Isidro Metapán, 2026-10-24