FAS vs Isidro Metapán: model vs market
| Source | FAS | Draw | Isidro Metapán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Published | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Edge | +7% | -1% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices FAS below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FAS, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAS | 2.01 | 2.05 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 2.94 | 3.00 | +0.06 |
| Isidro Metapán | 3.85 | 3.50 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FAS and Isidro Metapán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (FAS / Isidro Metapán)
- 1.35 / 0.92
- Defence rating (FAS / Isidro Metapán)
- 0.71 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FAS goals. Columns: Isidro Metapán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FAS vs Isidro Metapán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FAS | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Isidro Metapán | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FAS or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Isidro Metapán) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | FAS win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FAS and Isidro Metapán recent form
FAS
5W 1D 0L
Isidro Metapán
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FAS at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Isidro Metapán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FAS at home only, Isidro Metapán away only.
FAS vs Isidro Metapán head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FAS 4 · draws 3 · Isidro Metapán 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Isidro Metapán | 2-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-15 | Isidro Metapán | 0-3 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-18 | FAS | 2-2 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-21 | Isidro Metapán | 2-3 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-20 | FAS | 1-0 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-04-13 | Isidro Metapán | 3-1 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2025-02-16 | FAS | 0-0 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2024-12-15 | Isidro Metapán | 0-0 | FAS | Primera Division |
| 2024-12-12 | FAS | 2-1 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2024-10-13 | Isidro Metapán | 2-1 | FAS | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
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- Alianza v Platense — match page 2026-10-01
- Fuerte San Francisco vs Firpo 2026-10-01
- Inca Aruba v Municipal Limeño — match page 2026-10-02