Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco preview
In the fixture between Isidro Metapán and Fuerte San Francisco, the 1X2 probabilities show Isidro Metapán at 53% to win, while Fuerte San Francisco stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance according to our model.
Isidro Metapán has a stronger recent form, with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, compared to Fuerte San Francisco's 1 win in the same period. However, Fuerte San Francisco has historically dominated their head-to-head encounters, winning 4 out of the last 5 meetings. This could lead to a different outcome despite the current form. The model suggests 43% for Over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, indicating a potential for a low-scoring match.
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco: model vs market
| Source | Isidro Metapán | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Published | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Edge | -11% | +5% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Isidro Metapán, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isidro Metapán | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.95 | -0.01 |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 6.90 | 7.09 | +0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Isidro Metapán and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Isidro Metapán / Fuerte San Francisco)
- 1.01 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Isidro Metapán / Fuerte San Francisco)
- 0.93 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Isidro Metapán goals. Columns: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Isidro Metapán | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 14% | 7.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Isidro Metapán or draw) | 86% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Fuerte San Francisco) | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Isidro Metapán and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
Isidro Metapán
4W 1D 1L
Fuerte San Francisco
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Isidro Metapán at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Isidro Metapán at home only, Fuerte San Francisco away only.
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Isidro Metapán 1 · draws 0 · Fuerte San Francisco 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-0 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-26 | Isidro Metapán | 1-3 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-01 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-2 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-09 | Isidro Metapán | 1-2 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-07 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-0 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
- Firpo vs Inca Aruba — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Inter vs Municipal Limeño — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cacahuatique vs Alianza 2026-10-17
- Atletico Balboa vs Águila 2026-10-18
- FAS v Platense — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Isidro Metapán, previous: Águila – Isidro Metapán, 2026-10-11
- Isidro Metapán, next: FAS – Isidro Metapán, 2026-10-22
- Fuerte San Francisco, previous: Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique: odds and pick