Cacahuatique vs Alianza preview
In the upcoming match between Cacahuatique and Alianza, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a close contest with Alianza at 38% to win, while Cacahuatique sits at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.44 for Cacahuatique and 1.50 for Alianza.
The model indicates a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score. However, Cacahuatique's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. Alianza, on the other hand, has a more stable form with 3 wins in their last 6 games.
Cacahuatique vs Alianza: model vs market
| Source | Cacahuatique | Draw | Alianza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Market | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | -4% | -4% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Alianza below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cacahuatique vs Alianza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cacahuatique | 3.45 | 3.30 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.18 | 3.12 | -0.06 |
| Alianza | 2.01 | 2.03 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cacahuatique and Alianza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Cacahuatique / Alianza)
- 0.74 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Cacahuatique / Alianza)
- 1.24 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cacahuatique vs Alianza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cacahuatique goals. Columns: Alianza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cacahuatique vs Alianza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cacahuatique vs Alianza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cacahuatique | 26% | 3.82 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Alianza | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cacahuatique or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cacahuatique and Alianza recent form
Cacahuatique
1W 1D 4L
Alianza
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cacahuatique at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-5
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Alianza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cacahuatique at home only, Alianza away only.
Cacahuatique vs Alianza head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Cacahuatique 0 · draws 2 · Alianza 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Alianza | 0-0 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-19 | Alianza | 2-1 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-21 | Cacahuatique | 1-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-12-14 | Alianza | 3-0 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2025-12-07 | Cacahuatique | 1-2 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-25 | Alianza | 2-1 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-23 | Cacahuatique | 1-2 | Alianza | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
- Firpo vs Inca Aruba — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Inter vs Municipal Limeño — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Isidro Metapán v Fuerte San Francisco — match page 2026-10-18
- Atletico Balboa vs Águila 2026-10-18
- FAS v Platense — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Cacahuatique, previous: Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique: odds and pick
- Alianza, previous: Alianza vs Inter prediction