Atletico Balboa vs Águila preview
Atletico Balboa faces Águila with a 15% chance of winning compared to Águila's 62%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, which aligns with Águila's expected goals of 2.00 against Atletico Balboa's 0.91. Águila has shown strong recent form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches.
However, Atletico Balboa has a historical edge with 1 win in their last head-to-head meeting. Both teams to score stands at 53%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 56%. These factors could influence the outcome if Atletico Balboa manages to improve their performance, as they have struggled with 4 losses in their last 5 games.
Atletico Balboa vs Águila: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Balboa | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Market | 24% | 29% | 46% |
| Published | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Edge | -9% | -7% | +15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Águila below the model: +15.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Balboa vs Águila odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Águila, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Balboa | 3.65 | 3.71 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.06 | -0.08 |
| Águila | 1.96 | 1.95 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Balboa and Águila expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Atletico Balboa / Águila)
- 0.79 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Atletico Balboa / Águila)
- 1.17 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Balboa vs Águila score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Balboa goals. Columns: Águila goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Balboa vs Águila goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Balboa vs Águila
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 22% | 4.53 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Águila | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Balboa or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Águila) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win by 2+ | 38% | 2.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Atletico Balboa and Águila recent form
Atletico Balboa
1W 1D 4L
Águila
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Balboa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
Águila away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Balboa at home only, Águila away only.
Atletico Balboa vs Águila head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Balboa 1 · draws 0 · Águila 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Águila | 2-4 | Atletico Balboa | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
- Firpo vs Inca Aruba — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Inter vs Municipal Limeño — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Cacahuatique vs Alianza 2026-10-17
- Isidro Metapán v Fuerte San Francisco — match page 2026-10-18
- FAS v Platense — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Atletico Balboa, previous: Atletico Balboa v FAS analysis
- Águila, previous: Águila – Isidro Metapán, 2026-10-11