Updated

Primera Division · Apertura - 16

Firpo vs Inca Aruba

· Sergio Torres Stadium, Usulutan

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Firpo to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FirpoDrawInca Aruba

Firpo vs Inca Aruba: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFirpoDrawInca Aruba
Model69%20%11%
Market———
Published69%20%11%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Firpo and Inca Aruba expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.25Firpo
0.82Inca Aruba
Total expected goals
3.07
Attack rating (Firpo / Inca Aruba)
1.34 / 0.83
Defence rating (Firpo / Inca Aruba)
0.76 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Firpo vs Inca Aruba score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 2.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 1 9.6% 9.4% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 2 11.7% 9.6% 4.0% 1.1% 0.3% 3 8.8% 7.2% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 8.4% 6.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Firpo goals. Columns: Inca Aruba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Firpo vs Inca Aruba goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Firpo vs Inca Aruba

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Firpo69%1.45
Draw20%5.06
Inca Aruba11%8.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Firpo or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Inca Aruba)31%3.22
Handicap -1Firpo win by 2+46%2.16
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Firpo and Inca Aruba recent form

Firpo 4W 2D 0L
Inca Aruba 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Firpo at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-1-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.38
Clean sheets
6 of 8
  • They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.

Inca Aruba away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-4
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
0.71
Goals against / match
1.86
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Firpo at home only, Inca Aruba away only.

Firpo vs Inca Aruba head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Firpo 0 · draws 1 · Inca Aruba 0.

FirpoDrawsInca Aruba
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-16Inca Aruba0-0FirpoPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 16 fixtures

Before and after this match