Alianza vs Isidro Metapán preview
In the Primera Division fixture between Alianza and Isidro Metapán, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza at 35%, a draw at 29%, and Isidro Metapán at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with an 8% probability.
Both teams to score stands at 54%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 48%. Alianza's expected goals are 1.29, while Isidro Metapán's are slightly higher at 1.31. Recent form shows Alianza with D-D-L-D-W-D, and Isidro Metapán with D-W-L-W-W-D. The head-to-head record favors Isidro Metapán with 3 wins in the last 5 encounters.
Alianza vs Isidro Metapán: model vs market
| Source | Alianza | Draw | Isidro Metapán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alianza and Isidro Metapán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Alianza / Isidro Metapán)
- 1.07 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Alianza / Isidro Metapán)
- 1.04 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza vs Isidro Metapán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza goals. Columns: Isidro Metapán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza vs Isidro Metapán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza vs Isidro Metapán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Isidro Metapán | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Isidro Metapán) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win by 2+ | 17% | 5.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Alianza and Isidro Metapán recent form
Alianza
1W 4D 1L
Isidro Metapán
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-0
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
Isidro Metapán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza at home only, Isidro Metapán away only.
Alianza vs Isidro Metapán head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alianza 1 · draws 1 · Isidro Metapán 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Isidro Metapán | 2-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-02 | Isidro Metapán | 0-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-05 | Alianza | 2-1 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-12 | Isidro Metapán | 1-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-08-10 | Alianza | 0-2 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 17 fixtures
- Inca Aruba vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Águila vs FAS 2026-10-24
- Municipal Limeño v Cacahuatique — match page 2026-10-25
- Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa 2026-10-25
- Platense v Firpo — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Alianza, previous: Cacahuatique – Alianza, 2026-10-17
- Isidro Metapán, previous: FAS – Isidro Metapán, 2026-10-22