Updated

Primera Division · Apertura - 17

Inca Aruba vs Inter

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Inter to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Inca ArubaDrawInter

Inca Aruba vs Inter: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceInca ArubaDrawInter
Model22%27%51%
Market20%26%54%
Published20%26%54%
Edge0%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.00.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Inca Aruba and Inter expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00Inca Aruba
1.63Inter
Total expected goals
2.63
Attack rating (Inca Aruba / Inter)
0.76 / 1.03
Defence rating (Inca Aruba / Inter)
1.23 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inca Aruba vs Inter score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 10.6% 9.6% 5.2% 3.1% 1 6.0% 12.9% 9.6% 5.2% 3.1% 2 3.6% 5.9% 4.8% 2.6% 1.5% 3 1.2% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Inca Aruba goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inca Aruba vs Inter goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inca Aruba vs Inter

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Inca Aruba20%4.88
Draw26%3.85
Inter54%1.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.05
Under 2.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Inca Aruba or draw)46%2.15
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Inter)80%1.26
Handicap -1Inter win by 2+28%3.59
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Inca Aruba and Inter recent form

Inca Aruba 2W 2D 2L
Inter 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Inca Aruba at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-3
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
2 of 8
  • They have won 4 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 16 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 16 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Inter away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-2
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.38
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
4 of 8
  • They have won 5 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 16 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 16 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Inca Aruba at home only, Inter away only.

Inca Aruba vs Inter head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Inca Aruba 0 · draws 0 · Inter 1.

Inca ArubaDrawsInter
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-22Inter4-1Inca ArubaPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 17 fixtures

Before and after this match