Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa preview
In the Primera Division match between Fuerte San Francisco and Atletico Balboa, the 1X2 probabilities show Atletico Balboa at 38% and Fuerte San Francisco at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.32 for Fuerte San Francisco and 1.39 for Atletico Balboa.
Both teams to score has a probability of 56%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%. However, Fuerte San Francisco's recent form includes 3 draws and 2 losses, which could affect their performance. Atletico Balboa has struggled recently with 5 games without a win, making their chances uncertain despite the head-to-head advantage.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa: model vs market
| Source | Fuerte San Francisco | Draw | Atletico Balboa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 37% | 30% | 32% |
| Published | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fuerte San Francisco and Atletico Balboa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Atletico Balboa)
- 0.79 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Atletico Balboa)
- 1.24 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Columns: Atletico Balboa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fuerte San Francisco | 36% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Atletico Balboa | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fuerte San Francisco or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Balboa) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fuerte San Francisco win by 2+ | 16% | 6.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Fuerte San Francisco and Atletico Balboa recent form
Fuerte San Francisco
1W 3D 2L
Atletico Balboa
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fuerte San Francisco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 15 matches.
Atletico Balboa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-5
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.38
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 3 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 15 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fuerte San Francisco at home only, Atletico Balboa away only.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Atletico Balboa head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Fuerte San Francisco 0 · draws 0 · Atletico Balboa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Atletico Balboa | 1-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 17 fixtures
- Inca Aruba vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Alianza vs Isidro Metapán — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Águila vs FAS 2026-10-24
- Municipal Limeño v Cacahuatique — match page 2026-10-25
- Platense v Firpo — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Fuerte San Francisco, previous: Isidro Metapán v Fuerte San Francisco analysis
- Atletico Balboa, previous: Atletico Balboa vs Águila prediction