Updated

Primera Division · Apertura - 17

Águila vs FAS

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Águila to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ÁguilaDrawFAS

Águila vs FAS: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceÁguilaDrawFAS
Model39%28%33%
Market39%29%32%
Published39%29%33%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Águila vs FAS odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Águila, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-24.

Opened 2.33Now 2.33 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Águila2.332.33+0.00
Draw3.143.14+0.00
FAS2.792.79+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Águila and FAS expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Águila
1.30FAS
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (Águila / FAS)
1.35 / 1.11
Defence rating (Águila / FAS)
0.91 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Águila vs FAS score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 7.3% 5.5% 2.4% 1.0% 1 8.1% 13.3% 7.9% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.6% 8.7% 5.6% 2.5% 1.1% 3 3.2% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Águila goals. Columns: FAS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Águila vs FAS goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Águila vs FAS

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Águila39%2.58
Draw29%3.50
FAS33%3.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.30
Double chance1X (Águila or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or FAS)61%1.63
Handicap -1Águila win by 2+19%5.28
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Águila and FAS recent form

Águila 4W 1D 1L
FAS 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Águila at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-2-1
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
2.62
Goals against / match
1.38
Clean sheets
1 of 8
  • They have won 6 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 16 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 16 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

FAS away

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-2
Win rate
62%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
0.88
Clean sheets
4 of 8
  • They have won 9 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 16 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Águila at home only, FAS away only.

Águila vs FAS head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Águila 3 · draws 2 · FAS 5.

ÁguilaDrawsFAS
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-23FAS1-0ÁguilaPrimera Division
2026-05-24Águila0-3FASPrimera Division
2026-03-29Águila3-0FASPrimera Division
2026-02-01FAS3-0ÁguilaPrimera Division
2025-10-23Águila1-1FASPrimera Division
2025-08-03FAS1-0ÁguilaPrimera Division
2025-05-11Águila0-1FASPrimera Division
2025-05-08FAS1-2ÁguilaPrimera Division
2025-03-30FAS1-1ÁguilaPrimera Division
2025-02-02Águila3-1FASPrimera Division

Other Apertura - 17 fixtures

Before and after this match