Birmingham vs Swansea preview
In the Championship fixture between Birmingham and Swansea, the 1X2 probabilities show Birmingham at 49%, a draw at 26%, and Swansea at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Birmingham's expected goals stand at 1.71, while Swansea's is lower at 1.18.
Birmingham's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Swansea has also been strong, winning 4 of their last 6. However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors such as unexpected player performances or tactical changes could lead to a different outcome, affecting predictions like Over 2.5 goals or both teams to score.
Birmingham vs Swansea: model vs market
| Source | Birmingham | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.18.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Birmingham and Swansea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Birmingham / Swansea)
- 1.30 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Birmingham / Swansea)
- 0.86 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birmingham vs Swansea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birmingham goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birmingham vs Swansea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birmingham vs Swansea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Swansea | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birmingham or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Swansea) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Birmingham and Swansea recent form
Birmingham
4W 1D 1L
Swansea
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birmingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swansea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham at home only, Swansea away only.
Birmingham vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Birmingham 2 · draws 1 · Swansea 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Swansea | 0-1 | Birmingham | League Cup |
| 2026-01-17 | Swansea | 1-1 | Birmingham | England Championship |
| 2025-09-20 | Birmingham | 1-0 | Swansea | England Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Birmingham, previous: Birmingham v Millwall analysis
- Swansea, previous: Portsmouth vs Swansea prediction