Cardiff vs Burnley preview
In the Championship fixture between Cardiff and Burnley, Cardiff has a 60% chance to win, while Burnley sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a 9% probability. Cardiff's expected goals stand at 2.43 compared to Burnley's 1.35, indicating a strong attacking performance from Cardiff.
However, Cardiff's recent form shows inconsistencies with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Burnley, on the other hand, has struggled as well, with only one win in their last six games. This unpredictability in form could affect the outcome, making it possible for Burnley to surprise despite lower probabilities.
Cardiff vs Burnley: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cardiff and Burnley expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Cardiff / Burnley)
- 1.10 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Cardiff / Burnley)
- 1.14 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff vs Burnley score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff vs Burnley goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff vs Burnley
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Burnley | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Burnley) | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cardiff and Burnley recent form
Cardiff
3W 1D 2L
Burnley
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff at home only, Burnley away only.
Cardiff vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cardiff 1 · draws 0 · Burnley 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Burnley | 1-2 | Cardiff | League Cup |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
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- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Cardiff, previous: Cardiff v West Ham analysis
- Burnley, previous: QPR v Burnley analysis