Preston vs Southampton preview
In the Championship match between Preston and Southampton, the 1X2 probabilities show Southampton at 71% to win, compared to Preston's 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, which occurs with a 12% probability. Preston's recent form includes four losses in their last five matches, while Southampton has won four of their last six.
The expected goals highlight a significant difference, with Preston at 0.76 and Southampton at 2.30. Although the model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 59%, the possibility of both teams scoring is lower at 49%. If Preston can improve their attacking performance, it could challenge Southampton's dominance.
Preston vs Southampton: model vs market
| Source | Preston | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 16% | 75% |
| Market | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Published | 15% | 20% | 64% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Southampton below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Preston vs Southampton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Southampton, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.00 |
| Southampton | 1.55 | 1.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Preston and Southampton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Preston / Southampton)
- 0.63 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Preston / Southampton)
- 1.47 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Preston vs Southampton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Preston goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Preston vs Southampton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Preston vs Southampton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Preston | 15% | 6.46 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 | |
| Southampton | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Preston or draw) | 36% | 2.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Southampton) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win by 2+ | 54% | 1.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Preston and Southampton recent form
Preston
0W 2D 4L
Southampton
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Preston at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
Southampton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Preston at home only, Southampton away only.
Preston vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Preston 1 · draws 0 · Southampton 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Preston | 1-3 | Southampton | England Championship |
| 2025-11-01 | Southampton | 0-2 | Preston | England Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Preston, previous: Preston vs Sheffield Utd: odds and pick
- Southampton, previous: West Brom – Southampton, 2026-11-03