West Brom vs Millwall preview
In the match between West Brom and Millwall, the 1X2 probabilities show West Brom at 49%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 10%. West Brom has an expected goals figure of 1.69, while Millwall sits at 1.13. This suggests a competitive match, but West Brom's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 6 games.
The model indicates a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, which suggests uncertainty. Millwall's recent form includes 3 draws and 2 losses, indicating they may struggle to find the net. This could affect the expected goal outcomes.
West Brom vs Millwall: model vs market
| Source | West Brom | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
West Brom and Millwall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (West Brom / Millwall)
- 1.16 / 1.19
- Defence rating (West Brom / Millwall)
- 0.90 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
West Brom vs Millwall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: West Brom goals. Columns: Millwall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
West Brom vs Millwall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for West Brom vs Millwall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Millwall | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (West Brom or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Millwall) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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West Brom and Millwall recent form
West Brom
3W 1D 2L
Millwall
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
West Brom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: West Brom at home only, Millwall away only.
West Brom vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: West Brom 0 · draws 1 · Millwall 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | West Brom | 0-0 | Millwall | England Championship |
| 2025-10-04 | Millwall | 3-0 | West Brom | England Championship |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- Blackburn vs West Ham 2026-11-07
- QPR v Lincoln — match page 2026-11-07
- Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- West Brom, previous: West Brom – Southampton, 2026-11-03
- Millwall, previous: Birmingham v Millwall analysis