Derby vs Bolton preview
In the Championship fixture between Derby and Bolton, the 1X2 probabilities show Derby at 39%, Bolton at 35%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 7%. With expected goals of 1.49 for Derby and 1.82 for Bolton, there is a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%.
Derby’s recent form is L-D-L-L-D-D, while Bolton has a mixed record of L-L-D-W-L-W. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, especially given Derby's struggles to secure wins. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Derby vs Bolton: model vs market
| Source | Derby | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Derby vs Bolton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Derby, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 2.21 | 2.21 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.55 | +0.02 |
| Bolton | 2.97 | 3.00 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Derby and Bolton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Derby / Bolton)
- 0.72 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Derby / Bolton)
- 1.38 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Derby vs Bolton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Derby goals. Columns: Bolton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Derby vs Bolton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Derby vs Bolton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Bolton | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Derby or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Bolton) | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Derby win by 2+ | 15% | 6.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Derby and Bolton recent form
Derby
0W 3D 3L
Bolton
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Derby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Derby at home only, Bolton away only.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Bristol City v Norwich — match page 2026-11-07
- Portsmouth vs Stoke City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Wrexham vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 2026-11-07
- Watford v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-07
- Cardiff vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Birmingham vs Swansea 2026-11-07
- Preston v Southampton — match page 2026-11-07
- West Brom vs Millwall — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Derby, previous: Derby – Norwich, 2026-11-03
- Bolton, previous: Charlton vs Bolton: odds and pick