Premier Division · Matchday 33

Dundalk vs Bohemians

· Oriel Park, Dundalk

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Bohemians to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DundalkDrawBohemians

Dundalk vs Bohemians: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDundalkDrawBohemians
Model24%20%56%
Market24%24%53%
Published24%23%53%
Edge+1%-4%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.69.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Bohemians below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Dundalk vs Bohemians odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bohemians, 20 snapshots since 2026-09-23.

Opened 2.13Now 1.75 -0.38
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dundalk3.053.92+0.87
Draw3.563.90+0.34
Bohemians2.131.75-0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dundalk and Bohemians expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Dundalk
2.53Bohemians
Total expected goals
4.22
Attack rating (Dundalk / Bohemians)
1.05 / 1.50
Defence rating (Dundalk / Bohemians)
1.45 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dundalk vs Bohemians score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 3.1% 4.7% 4.0% 4.6% 1 1.9% 6.9% 8.0% 6.7% 7.8% 2 2.1% 5.3% 6.7% 5.7% 6.6% 3 1.2% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% 3.7% 4+ 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 2.3%

Rows: Dundalk goals. Columns: Bohemians goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dundalk vs Bohemians goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 79%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dundalk vs Bohemians

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dundalk24%4.21
Draw23%4.40
Bohemians53%1.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579%1.26
Under 2.521%4.81
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.32
No24%4.10
Double chance1X (Dundalk or draw)47%2.15
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Bohemians)76%1.31
Handicap -1Bohemians win by 2+36%2.75
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dundalk and Bohemians recent form

Dundalk 1W 1D 4L
Bohemians 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dundalk at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-7
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
1.56
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Bohemians away

Record (W-D-L)
9-2-4
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.87
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
7 of 15
  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Dundalk at home only, Bohemians away only.

Dundalk vs Bohemians head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Dundalk 3 · draws 3 · Bohemians 4.

DundalkDrawsBohemians
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-19Bohemians1-2DundalkPremier Division
2026-05-08Dundalk1-3BohemiansPremier Division
2026-03-20Bohemians1-1DundalkPremier Division
2024-09-27Dundalk0-2BohemiansPremier Division
2024-07-26Bohemians1-1DundalkPremier Division
2024-04-26Dundalk2-0BohemiansPremier Division
2024-04-15Bohemians1-0DundalkPremier Division
2023-10-27Dundalk2-0BohemiansPremier Division
2023-07-07Bohemians3-2DundalkPremier Division
2023-05-19Dundalk2-2BohemiansPremier Division

Other Matchday 33 fixtures