Dukagjini vs Gjilani preview
In the Kosovo Superliga fixture between Dukagjini and Gjilani, the 1X2 probabilities show Gjilani at 40%, Dukagjini at 26%, and a draw at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. Dukagjini has an expected goals figure of 0.82, while Gjilani's is 1.09, indicating a potential edge for the visitors.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Dukagjini's last five matches show L-D-W-D-L-D, while Gjilani has D-W-W-L-L-D. With only a 30% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score, the match might not be as high-scoring as some expect. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Dukagjini vs Gjilani: model vs market
| Source | Dukagjini | Draw | Gjilani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 34% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 34% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dukagjini and Gjilani expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.91
- Attack rating (Dukagjini / Gjilani)
- 0.75 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Dukagjini / Gjilani)
- 0.89 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dukagjini vs Gjilani score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dukagjini goals. Columns: Gjilani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dukagjini vs Gjilani goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dukagjini vs Gjilani
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukagjini | 26% | 3.88 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Gjilani | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.60 |
| No | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dukagjini or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Gjilani) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gjilani win by 2+ | 17% | 5.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Dukagjini and Gjilani recent form
Dukagjini
1W 3D 2L
Gjilani
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dukagjini at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Gjilani away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dukagjini at home only, Gjilani away only.
Dukagjini vs Gjilani head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dukagjini 5 · draws 4 · Gjilani 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Gjilani | 2-2 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-04-19 | Gjilani | 2-3 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-02-15 | Dukagjini | 1-1 | Gjilani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-10-28 | Gjilani | 0-2 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-08-24 | Dukagjini | 2-0 | Gjilani | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-04-21 | Gjilani | 1-1 | Dukagjini | Superliga |
| 2025-02-23 | Dukagjini | 0-0 | Gjilani | Superliga |
| 2024-11-02 | Gjilani | 1-2 | Dukagjini | Superliga |
| 2024-08-25 | Dukagjini | 2-1 | Gjilani | Superliga |
| 2024-05-25 | Dukagjini | 2-4 | Gjilani | Superliga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ballkani v Drenica Skënderaj — match page 2026-10-30
- Llapi vs Prishtina — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Drita vs Vushtrria 2026-10-31
- Malisheva v Feronikeli — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Dukagjini, previous: Feronikeli v Dukagjini analysis
- Gjilani, previous: Gjilani vs Llapi: odds and pick