Dukagjini vs Llapi preview
In the Kosovo Superliga fixture between Dukagjini and Llapi, the 1X2 probabilities show Dukagjini at 59%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 15%. Dukagjini's expected goals stand at 1.32, while Llapi's is lower at 0.79.
However, the prediction could be affected by recent form, as Dukagjini has drawn three of their last six matches, while Llapi has lost five of their last six. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is at 35%, and both teams to score is at 41%, indicating that while Dukagjini is favored, the match could still yield surprises.
Dukagjini vs Llapi: model vs market
| Source | Dukagjini | Draw | Llapi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Published | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dukagjini and Llapi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.11
- Attack rating (Dukagjini / Llapi)
- 0.73 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Dukagjini / Llapi)
- 0.87 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dukagjini vs Llapi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dukagjini goals. Columns: Llapi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dukagjini vs Llapi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dukagjini vs Llapi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukagjini | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Llapi | 17% | 5.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.43 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dukagjini or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Llapi) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dukagjini win by 2+ | 23% | 4.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dukagjini and Llapi recent form
Dukagjini
1W 3D 2L
Llapi
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dukagjini at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Llapi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dukagjini at home only, Llapi away only.
Dukagjini vs Llapi head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dukagjini 5 · draws 3 · Llapi 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Llapi | 1-2 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-05-10 | Llapi | 0-0 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2026-03-15 | Dukagjini | 1-2 | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-11-30 | Llapi | 0-1 | Dukagjini | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-09-25 | Dukagjini | 3-1 | Llapi | Kosovo Superliga |
| 2025-05-25 | Llapi | 3-1 | Dukagjini | Superliga |
| 2025-04-06 | Dukagjini | 3-1 | Llapi | Superliga |
| 2024-12-20 | Llapi | 0-0 | Dukagjini | Superliga |
| 2024-10-20 | Dukagjini | 1-0 | Llapi | Superliga |
| 2024-04-14 | Dukagjini | 1-1 | Llapi | Superliga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Feronikeli vs Ballkani 2026-11-07
- Gjilani v Malisheva — match page 2026-11-07
- Drenica Skënderaj vs Drita — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Vushtrria vs Prishtina 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Dukagjini, previous: Dukagjini vs Gjilani: odds and pick
- Llapi, previous: Llapi vs Prishtina prediction