Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX, Alebrijes de Oaxaca faces Mineros de Zacatecas with a 42% chance for Alebrijes to win and a predicted scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 65%.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has shown mixed recent form with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Mineros de Zacatecas has 2 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw in the same period. This could affect the outcome, as Mineros may improve their performance despite their recent struggles. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas: model vs market
| Source | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Draw | Mineros de Zacatecas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Mineros de Zacatecas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Alebrijes de Oaxaca / Mineros de Zacatecas)
- 0.86 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Alebrijes de Oaxaca / Mineros de Zacatecas)
- 1.14 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals. Columns: Mineros de Zacatecas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Mineros de Zacatecas) | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Mineros de Zacatecas recent form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3W 0D 3L
Mineros de Zacatecas
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Mineros de Zacatecas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home only, Mineros de Zacatecas away only.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 · draws 1 · Mineros de Zacatecas 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 2-0 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-08-24 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 2-2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
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Before and after this match
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca, previous: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: odds and pick
- Mineros de Zacatecas, previous: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG prediction