CA La Paz vs Dorados preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture between CA La Paz and Dorados, the 1X2 probabilities show CA La Paz at 74% to win, while Dorados sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, with an expected goals tally of 3.12 for CA La Paz and 1.26 for Dorados.
CA La Paz has shown solid recent form with a record of D-W-L-W-W-D, while Dorados has struggled, recording W-L-L-L-D-D. The model indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 69%. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could arise, particularly given Dorados' potential for improvement.
CA La Paz vs Dorados: model vs market
| Source | CA La Paz | Draw | Dorados |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 15% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 74% | 15% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.12 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CA La Paz and Dorados expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.38
- Attack rating (CA La Paz / Dorados)
- 1.40 / 1.11
- Defence rating (CA La Paz / Dorados)
- 0.97 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CA La Paz vs Dorados score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CA La Paz goals. Columns: Dorados goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CA La Paz vs Dorados goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CA La Paz vs Dorados
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 74% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.77 | |
| Dorados | 12% | 8.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CA La Paz or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Dorados) | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win by 2+ | 55% | 1.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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CA La Paz and Dorados recent form
CA La Paz
3W 2D 1L
Dorados
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CA La Paz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Dorados away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CA La Paz at home only, Dorados away only.
CA La Paz vs Dorados head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: CA La Paz 1 · draws 1 · Dorados 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Dorados | 2-2 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-08-30 | CA La Paz | 3-1 | Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
- CA La Paz, previous: CDS Tampico Madero – CA La Paz, 2026-10-25
- Dorados, previous: Dorados vs Piratas: odds and pick