Durango vs Monarcas preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture between Durango and Monarcas, the 1X2 probabilities show Durango at 52%, while Monarcas sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 11% chance of occurring. Durango's expected goals stand at 1.61 compared to Monarcas' 0.94, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, the match could deviate from this projection. Both teams to score has a probability of 50%, suggesting that Monarcas could find the net despite their lower expected goals. Additionally, the recent form shows Durango with a string of positive results, while Monarcas has been inconsistent, which could impact the outcome.
Durango vs Monarcas: model vs market
| Source | Durango | Draw | Monarcas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Durango and Monarcas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Durango / Monarcas)
- 1.08 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Durango / Monarcas)
- 0.77 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Durango vs Monarcas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Durango goals. Columns: Monarcas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Durango vs Monarcas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Durango vs Monarcas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Monarcas | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Durango or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Monarcas) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Durango win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Durango and Monarcas recent form
Durango
4W 1D 1L
Monarcas
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Durango at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Monarcas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Durango at home only, Monarcas away only.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC 2026-10-31
- CA La Paz vs Dorados — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala 2026-10-31
- Cancún v CDS Tampico Madero — match page 2026-11-01
- Piratas vs Tapatío 2026-11-01
- Leones Negros UDG v Tepatitlán — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Durango, previous: Venados FC – Durango, 2026-10-24
- Monarcas, previous: Tapatío v Monarcas analysis