Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán preview
Leones Negros UDG host Tepatitlán with a strong 1X2 probability of 92% for the home side, while the visitors sit at just 2%. The most likely scoreline is 4-0, reflecting Leones Negros UDG's expected goals of 4.02 compared to Tepatitlán's 0.67.
However, Tepatitlán's recent form shows they have managed a draw against Leones Negros UDG in their last two encounters, which could challenge the expected outcome. Additionally, with both teams to score sitting at 48%, there is a possibility Tepatitlán could find the net, impacting the Over 2.5 goals prediction of 85%.
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán: model vs market
| Source | Leones Negros UDG | Draw | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.02 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.69
- Attack rating (Leones Negros UDG / Tepatitlán)
- 1.30 / 0.59
- Defence rating (Leones Negros UDG / Tepatitlán)
- 0.94 / 1.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leones Negros UDG goals. Columns: Tepatitlán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 92% | 1.09 |
| Draw | 6% | 16.31 | |
| Tepatitlán | 2% | 45.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leones Negros UDG or draw) | 98% | 1.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 94% | 1.07 | |
| X2 (draw or Tepatitlán) | 8% | 11.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win by 2+ | 80% | 1.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán recent form
Leones Negros UDG
3W 1D 2L
Tepatitlán
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leones Negros UDG at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
Tepatitlán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leones Negros UDG at home only, Tepatitlán away only.
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Leones Negros UDG 0 · draws 2 · Tepatitlán 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Leones Negros UDG | 0-0 | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-07 | Tepatitlán | 1-1 | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Zacatecas — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC 2026-10-31
- CA La Paz vs Dorados — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala 2026-10-31
- Cancún v CDS Tampico Madero — match page 2026-11-01
- Durango vs Monarcas — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Piratas vs Tapatío 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Leones Negros UDG, previous: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG prediction
- Tepatitlán, previous: Tepatitlán vs Cancún prediction