Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero preview
Cancún faces CDS Tampico Madero with a 72% probability of winning, while the most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%. Cancún's expected goals stand at 2.42, significantly higher than CDS Tampico Madero's 0.80, indicating a strong attacking performance from Cancún.
However, Cancún's recent form shows some inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 5 matches. CDS Tampico Madero has a better head-to-head record, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters. This could lead to a different outcome than predicted, especially if both teams manage to score, as there is a 51% chance of that happening.
Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero: model vs market
| Source | Cancún | Draw | CDS Tampico Madero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cancún and CDS Tampico Madero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Cancún / CDS Tampico Madero)
- 1.24 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Cancún / CDS Tampico Madero)
- 0.84 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cancún goals. Columns: CDS Tampico Madero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.57 | |
| CDS Tampico Madero | 10% | 10.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cancún or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or CDS Tampico Madero) | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win by 2+ | 50% | 1.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cancún and CDS Tampico Madero recent form
Cancún
3W 2D 1L
CDS Tampico Madero
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cancún at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CDS Tampico Madero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-6
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.57
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cancún at home only, CDS Tampico Madero away only.
Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Cancún 0 · draws 1 · CDS Tampico Madero 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Cancún | 1-1 | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-05-01 | CDS Tampico Madero | 2-1 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-03-01 | Cancún | 1-2 | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-21 | CDS Tampico Madero | 2-1 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
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- CA La Paz vs Dorados — team news & stats 2026-10-31
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- Durango vs Monarcas — team news & stats 2026-11-01
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Before and after this match
- Cancún, previous: Tepatitlán vs Cancún prediction
- CDS Tampico Madero, previous: CDS Tampico Madero – CA La Paz, 2026-10-25