Piratas vs Tapatío preview
Piratas face Tapatío with a strong 79% probability of winning according to our model, while Tapatío sits at just 8%. The most likely scoreline is 3-1, which aligns with the high expectation of 3.27 goals for Piratas compared to Tapatío's 1.06.
However, there are factors that could challenge this outcome. Tapatío has shown some resilience, winning 1 of their last 6 matches, while Piratas have fluctuated with 3 wins in their last 6. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is at 81%, and both teams to score stands at 63%. If Tapatío can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Piratas, they might alter the expected dynamics of the match.
Piratas vs Tapatío: model vs market
| Source | Piratas | Draw | Tapatío |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.29 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Piratas and Tapatío expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.31
- Attack rating (Piratas / Tapatío)
- 1.39 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Piratas / Tapatío)
- 0.80 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Piratas vs Tapatío score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Piratas goals. Columns: Tapatío goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Piratas vs Tapatío goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Piratas vs Tapatío
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 80% | 1.25 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.11 | |
| Tapatío | 8% | 13.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Piratas or draw) | 92% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Tapatío) | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win by 2+ | 63% | 1.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Piratas and Tapatío recent form
Piratas
4W 0D 2L
Tapatío
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Piratas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tapatío away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Piratas at home only, Tapatío away only.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
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- Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC 2026-10-31
- CA La Paz vs Dorados — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala 2026-10-31
- Cancún v CDS Tampico Madero — match page 2026-11-01
- Durango vs Monarcas — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Leones Negros UDG v Tepatitlán — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Piratas, previous: Dorados vs Piratas: odds and pick
- Tapatío, previous: Tapatío v Monarcas analysis