Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala preview
Cruz Azul Hidalgo faces Tlaxcala with a 46% chance of winning compared to Tlaxcala's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time in our model. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is 68%, and both teams to score is also at 68%.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo has an expected goals figure of 1.93, while Tlaxcala sits at 1.56. Recent form shows Cruz Azul Hidalgo with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Tlaxcala has 4 wins in their last 6. A draw is a possibility with a 24% chance, which could affect the outcome of Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala: model vs market
| Source | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | Draw | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Tlaxcala expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Cruz Azul Hidalgo / Tlaxcala)
- 0.91 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Cruz Azul Hidalgo / Tlaxcala)
- 1.03 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals. Columns: Tlaxcala goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 42% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Tlaxcala | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cruz Azul Hidalgo or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Tlaxcala) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Tlaxcala recent form
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
2W 1D 3L
Tlaxcala
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cruz Azul Hidalgo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
Tlaxcala away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cruz Azul Hidalgo at home only, Tlaxcala away only.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
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- CA La Paz vs Dorados — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Cancún v CDS Tampico Madero — match page 2026-11-01
- Durango vs Monarcas — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Piratas vs Tapatío 2026-11-01
- Leones Negros UDG v Tepatitlán — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo, previous: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: odds and pick
- Tlaxcala, previous: Tlaxcala v Correcaminos Uat analysis