Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX match between Correcaminos Uat and Venados FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Correcaminos Uat at 40%, Venados FC at 36%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability.
Both teams to score is at 68%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 66%. Correcaminos Uat's expected goals are 1.75, while Venados FC's are 1.66. Recent form shows Correcaminos Uat with L-L-D-W-L-D and Venados FC with D-D-W-W-L-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC: model vs market
| Source | Correcaminos Uat | Draw | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 25% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Correcaminos Uat and Venados FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Correcaminos Uat / Venados FC)
- 0.91 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Correcaminos Uat / Venados FC)
- 1.12 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Correcaminos Uat goals. Columns: Venados FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Correcaminos Uat | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Venados FC | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Correcaminos Uat or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Venados FC) | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Correcaminos Uat win by 2+ | 21% | 4.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Correcaminos Uat and Venados FC recent form
Correcaminos Uat
1W 2D 3L
Venados FC
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Correcaminos Uat at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Venados FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Correcaminos Uat at home only, Venados FC away only.
Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Correcaminos Uat 1 · draws 0 · Venados FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Venados FC | 0-1 | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-27 | Correcaminos Uat | 3-6 | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Correcaminos Uat, previous: Tlaxcala v Correcaminos Uat analysis
- Venados FC, previous: Venados FC – Durango, 2026-10-24