Updated

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG

· Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba, Zacatecas· Referee A. Lopez

Alin prediction Mineros de Zacatecas to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Mineros de ZacatecasDrawLeones Negros UDG
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.71.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mineros de Zacatecas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Mineros de Zacatecas2.03 Draw3.86 Leones Negros UDG3.60

Price as of

Expected return at 2.03: -4.3% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG preview

In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture on 2026-10-25, Mineros de Zacatecas has a 47% chance to win against Leones Negros UDG, who have a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. The model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 73%.

Mineros de Zacatecas has an expected goals figure of 2.16, while Leones Negros UDG is at 1.70. Recent form shows Mineros with two wins in their last six matches, while Leones Negros has two wins in their last six as well. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMineros de ZacatecasDrawLeones Negros UDG
Model48%22%30%
Market47%25%28%
Published47%25%28%
Edge0%-1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.71.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mineros de Zacatecas, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 2.00Now 1.94 -0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Mineros de Zacatecas2.001.94-0.06
Draw3.653.60-0.05
Leones Negros UDG3.123.30+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mineros de Zacatecas and Leones Negros UDG expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.15Mineros de Zacatecas
1.71Leones Negros UDG
Total expected goals
3.85
Attack rating (Mineros de Zacatecas / Leones Negros UDG)
1.14 / 1.30
Defence rating (Mineros de Zacatecas / Leones Negros UDG)
1.12 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 1.8% 1.1% 1 3.8% 8.5% 6.6% 3.8% 2.4% 2 4.9% 8.3% 7.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.5% 6.0% 5.1% 2.9% 1.8% 4+ 3.1% 5.3% 4.5% 2.6% 1.6%

Rows: Mineros de Zacatecas goals. Columns: Leones Negros UDG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 54%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Mineros de Zacatecas47%2.12
Draw25%4.07
Leones Negros UDG28%3.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.84
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.71
Double chance1X (Mineros de Zacatecas or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Leones Negros UDG)53%1.89
Handicap -1Mineros de Zacatecas win by 2+28%3.52
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Mineros de Zacatecas and Leones Negros UDG recent form

Mineros de Zacatecas 2W 1D 3L
Leones Negros UDG 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Mineros de Zacatecas at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-1
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
2.57
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.

Leones Negros UDG away

Record (W-D-L)
5-1-1
Win rate
71%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Mineros de Zacatecas at home only, Leones Negros UDG away only.

Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Mineros de Zacatecas 2 · draws 3 · Leones Negros UDG 5.

Mineros de ZacatecasDrawsLeones Negros UDG
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Leones Negros UDG1-3Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX
2025-10-12Mineros de Zacatecas2-0Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2025-01-26Mineros de Zacatecas0-0Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2024-11-10Leones Negros UDG3-1Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX
2024-11-07Mineros de Zacatecas2-2Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2024-08-11Leones Negros UDG1-0Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX
2024-04-29Leones Negros UDG3-0Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX
2024-04-26Mineros de Zacatecas0-0Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2024-02-02Mineros de Zacatecas0-1Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2023-10-02Leones Negros UDG3-2Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX

Other Apertura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Mineros de Zacatecas to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Mineros de Zacatecas
Our pick: Mineros de Zacatecas to win 18+ Bet Now