Venados FC vs Durango preview
In the fixture between Venados FC and Durango, the 1X2 probabilities show Venados FC at 39%, Durango at 33%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals stands at 52%, while both teams to score is at 57%.
Venados FC has an expected goals figure of 1.44, compared to Durango's 1.31. Recent form shows Venados FC with two draws and three wins in their last six matches, while Durango has three wins and one draw in their last six. A surprising result could come if either team fails to convert their chances, impacting the expected goals and overall match outcome.
Venados FC vs Durango: model vs market
| Source | Venados FC | Draw | Durango |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Venados FC and Durango expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Venados FC / Durango)
- 1.27 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Venados FC / Durango)
- 1.07 / 0.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Venados FC vs Durango score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Venados FC goals. Columns: Durango goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Venados FC vs Durango goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Venados FC vs Durango
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venados FC | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Durango | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Venados FC or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Durango) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Venados FC win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Venados FC and Durango recent form
Venados FC
3W 2D 1L
Durango
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Venados FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Durango away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.43
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Venados FC at home only, Durango away only.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2026-10-23
- Tepatitlán v Cancún — match page 2026-10-24
- Dorados v Piratas — match page 2026-10-25
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz 2026-10-25
- Tlaxcala v Correcaminos Uat — match page 2026-10-25
- Tapatío vs Monarcas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Venados FC, previous: Cancún vs Venados FC prediction
- Durango, previous: Durango v Tapatío analysis