Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX match between Tlaxcala and Correcaminos Uat, the 1X2 probabilities show Tlaxcala at 51% and Correcaminos Uat at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Tlaxcala has an expected goals figure of 2.56, while Correcaminos Uat sits at 1.27.
There is a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 67%. However, recent form could impact the outcome; Tlaxcala has a mixed record of D-W-D-W-L-W, while Correcaminos Uat has struggled with L-L-D-W-L-D. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected results.
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat: model vs market
| Source | Tlaxcala | Draw | Correcaminos Uat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tlaxcala below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tlaxcala, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tlaxcala | 1.97 | 1.95 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
| Correcaminos Uat | 3.16 | 3.20 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tlaxcala and Correcaminos Uat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Tlaxcala / Correcaminos Uat)
- 1.27 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Tlaxcala / Correcaminos Uat)
- 1.20 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tlaxcala goals. Columns: Correcaminos Uat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Correcaminos Uat | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tlaxcala or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Correcaminos Uat) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tlaxcala win by 2+ | 44% | 2.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tlaxcala and Correcaminos Uat recent form
Tlaxcala
3W 2D 1L
Correcaminos Uat
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tlaxcala at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Correcaminos Uat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tlaxcala at home only, Correcaminos Uat away only.
Tlaxcala vs Correcaminos Uat head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tlaxcala 0 · draws 0 · Correcaminos Uat 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Correcaminos Uat | 2-1 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-08-24 | Tlaxcala | 0-2 | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2026-10-23
- Tepatitlán v Cancún — match page 2026-10-24
- Venados FC vs Durango — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Dorados v Piratas — match page 2026-10-25
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz 2026-10-25
- Tapatío vs Monarcas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Tlaxcala, previous: CA La Paz – Tlaxcala, 2026-10-17
- Correcaminos Uat, previous: Correcaminos Uat vs Dorados: odds and pick
- Correcaminos Uat, next: Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC prediction