Dorados vs Piratas preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX match between Dorados and Piratas, the 1X2 probabilities show Dorados at 26%, a draw at 24%, and Piratas at 50%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%.
Dorados have an expected goals figure of 1.76, while Piratas sit slightly lower at 1.72. Recent form shows Dorados with a record of W-L-L-L-D-D, while Piratas have W-L-W-L-W-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Dorados vs Piratas: model vs market
| Source | Dorados | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Published | 26% | 24% | 49% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dorados vs Piratas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Piratas, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dorados | 4.24 | 4.05 | -0.19 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
| Piratas | 1.69 | 1.70 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dorados and Piratas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Dorados / Piratas)
- 1.11 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Dorados / Piratas)
- 1.24 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dorados vs Piratas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dorados goals. Columns: Piratas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dorados vs Piratas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dorados vs Piratas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dorados | 26% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Piratas | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dorados or draw) | 51% | 1.98 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Piratas) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win by 2+ | 20% | 5.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dorados and Piratas recent form
Dorados
1W 2D 3L
Piratas
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dorados at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piratas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dorados at home only, Piratas away only.
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2026-10-23
- Tepatitlán v Cancún — match page 2026-10-24
- Venados FC vs Durango — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz 2026-10-25
- Tlaxcala v Correcaminos Uat — match page 2026-10-25
- Tapatío vs Monarcas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Dorados, previous: Correcaminos Uat vs Dorados: odds and pick
- Dorados, next: CA La Paz v Dorados analysis
- Piratas, previous: Piratas – Tepatitlán, 2026-10-18