CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture, CDS Tampico Madero faces CA La Paz with a 39% chance for the visitors to win compared to 35% for the home side. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.42 for CDS Tampico Madero and 1.67 for CA La Paz.
Both teams to score stands at 63%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 60%. Recent form shows CDS Tampico Madero with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while CA La Paz has 3 wins in their last 6. A draw is also a possibility with a 26% chance, which could impact the expected outcomes.
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz: model vs market
| Source | CDS Tampico Madero | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CA La Paz, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDS Tampico Madero | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| CA La Paz | 2.42 | 2.42 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CDS Tampico Madero and CA La Paz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (CDS Tampico Madero / CA La Paz)
- 0.81 / 1.40
- Defence rating (CDS Tampico Madero / CA La Paz)
- 1.02 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CDS Tampico Madero goals. Columns: CA La Paz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CDS Tampico Madero | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| CA La Paz | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CDS Tampico Madero or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or CA La Paz) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CDS Tampico Madero and CA La Paz recent form
CDS Tampico Madero
1W 2D 3L
CA La Paz
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CDS Tampico Madero at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: CDS Tampico Madero at home only, CA La Paz away only.
CDS Tampico Madero vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: CDS Tampico Madero 4 · draws 1 · CA La Paz 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | CA La Paz | 1-2 | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-04-23 | CDS Tampico Madero | 2-0 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2026-03-28 | CA La Paz | 1-1 | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-10-19 | CDS Tampico Madero | 3-2 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-02-23 | CDS Tampico Madero | 2-0 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-09-07 | CA La Paz | 2-1 | CDS Tampico Madero | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo 2026-10-23
- Tepatitlán v Cancún — match page 2026-10-24
- Venados FC vs Durango — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Dorados v Piratas — match page 2026-10-25
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Leones Negros UDG — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Tlaxcala v Correcaminos Uat — match page 2026-10-25
- Tapatío vs Monarcas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- CDS Tampico Madero, previous: Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero: odds and pick
- CA La Paz, previous: CA La Paz – Tlaxcala, 2026-10-17
- CA La Paz, next: CA La Paz v Dorados analysis