Mornar vs Jezero preview
Mornar faces Jezero in the Montenegro First League, with a 56% probability of Mornar winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Mornar's expected goals of 1.66 compared to Jezero's 0.84.
However, the match could see different outcomes, as both teams to score stands at 47% and Over 2.5 goals at 46%. Jezero has struggled recently, with only one win in their last five matches, while Mornar has shown some resilience with two wins in their last five. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Mornar vs Jezero: model vs market
| Source | Mornar | Draw | Jezero |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 27% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mornar and Jezero expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Mornar / Jezero)
- 0.87 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Mornar / Jezero)
- 0.80 / 1.43
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mornar vs Jezero score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mornar goals. Columns: Jezero goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mornar vs Jezero goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mornar vs Jezero
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mornar | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Jezero | 18% | 5.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mornar or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Jezero) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mornar win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Mornar and Jezero recent form
Mornar
2W 2D 2L
Jezero
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mornar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Jezero away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mornar at home only, Jezero away only.
Mornar vs Jezero head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mornar 6 · draws 2 · Jezero 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Jezero | 0-0 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-05-24 | Jezero | 0-2 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2026-05-06 | Jezero | 1-2 | Mornar | Cup |
| 2026-04-22 | Mornar | 1-0 | Jezero | Cup |
| 2026-04-04 | Mornar | 2-0 | Jezero | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-12-06 | Jezero | 2-1 | Mornar | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-09-27 | Mornar | 2-2 | Jezero | Montenegro First League |
| 2025-04-12 | Mornar | 0-1 | Jezero | First League |
| 2025-02-22 | Jezero | 1-2 | Mornar | First League |
| 2024-10-06 | Mornar | 2-0 | Jezero | First League |
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