Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost DG preview
Otrant-Olympic faces Mladost DG with a strong 70% probability of winning according to the model. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Otrant-Olympic at 2.30 compared to Mladost DG's 0.81. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the 60% chance of Over 2.5 goals being scored.
However, Mladost DG has a better head-to-head record with 5 wins in the last 8 encounters. Their recent form includes a mix of results, with two wins in their last five matches. This could lead to a different outcome than predicted, especially if both teams score, which has a 51% probability.
Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost DG: model vs market
| Source | Otrant-Olympic | Draw | Mladost DG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Otrant-Olympic and Mladost DG expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Otrant-Olympic / Mladost DG)
- 1.36 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Otrant-Olympic / Mladost DG)
- 0.94 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost DG score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Otrant-Olympic goals. Columns: Mladost DG goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost DG goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost DG
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Otrant-Olympic | 70% | 1.43 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Mladost DG | 11% | 9.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Otrant-Olympic or draw) | 89% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Mladost DG) | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Otrant-Olympic win by 2+ | 48% | 2.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Otrant-Olympic and Mladost DG recent form
Otrant-Olympic
4W 0D 2L
Mladost DG
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Otrant-Olympic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mladost DG away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Otrant-Olympic at home only, Mladost DG away only.
Otrant-Olympic vs Mladost DG head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Otrant-Olympic 2 · draws 1 · Mladost DG 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Mladost DG | 2-1 | Otrant-Olympic | Montenegro First League |
| 2024-06-04 | Mladost DG | 2-2 | Otrant-Olympic | First League |
| 2024-05-31 | Otrant-Olympic | 1-0 | Mladost DG | First League |
| 2024-02-10 | Mladost DG | 0-2 | Otrant-Olympic | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-30 | Mladost DG | 1-0 | Otrant-Olympic | Second League |
| 2023-03-18 | Otrant-Olympic | 0-1 | Mladost DG | Second League |
| 2022-10-22 | Mladost DG | 3-0 | Otrant-Olympic | Second League |
| 2022-09-04 | Otrant-Olympic | 1-2 | Mladost DG | Second League |
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