Northern Ireland Premiership · Matchday 10

Bangor vs Coleraine FC

· Clandeboye Park, Bangor· Referee I. McNabb

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Coleraine FC to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BangorDrawColeraine FC

Bangor vs Coleraine FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBangorDrawColeraine FC
Model16%20%64%
Market9%15%76%
Published11%16%73%
Edge+7%+5%-13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bangor vs Coleraine FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Coleraine FC, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.17Now 1.21 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bangor11.0010.42-0.58
Draw6.106.12+0.03
Coleraine FC1.171.21+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bangor and Coleraine FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Bangor
2.32Coleraine FC
Total expected goals
3.42
Attack rating (Bangor / Coleraine FC)
0.75 / 1.40
Defence rating (Bangor / Coleraine FC)
1.24 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bangor vs Coleraine FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 6.7% 8.8% 6.8% 6.8% 1 2.8% 9.2% 9.7% 7.5% 7.5% 2 2.0% 4.6% 5.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%

Rows: Bangor goals. Columns: Coleraine FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bangor vs Coleraine FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bangor vs Coleraine FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bangor11%9.42
Draw16%6.10
Coleraine FC73%1.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.98
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.57
Double chance1X (Bangor or draw)27%3.70
12 (either side)84%1.20
X2 (draw or Coleraine FC)89%1.12
Handicap -1Coleraine FC win by 2+42%2.38
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bangor and Coleraine FC recent form

Bangor 1W 2D 3L
Coleraine FC 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bangor at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coleraine FC away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bangor at home only, Coleraine FC away only.

Bangor vs Coleraine FC head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Bangor 1 · draws 0 · Coleraine FC 4.

BangorDrawsColeraine FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-31Bangor0-2Coleraine FCNorthern Ireland Premiership
2025-12-12Coleraine FC2-0BangorNorthern Ireland Premiership
2025-10-04Bangor2-1Coleraine FCNorthern Ireland Premiership
2023-10-03Coleraine FC2-1BangorLeague Cup
2021-09-14Bangor0-5Coleraine FCLeague Cup

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