Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC: model vs market
| Source | Carrick Rangers | Draw | Crusaders FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Edge | -28% | +2% | +25% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Carrick Rangers, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick Rangers | 1.53 | 1.57 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
| Crusaders FC | 4.63 | 4.62 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Carrick Rangers and Crusaders FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (Carrick Rangers / Crusaders FC)
- 1.01 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Carrick Rangers / Crusaders FC)
- 1.22 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Carrick Rangers goals. Columns: Crusaders FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrick Rangers | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Crusaders FC | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Carrick Rangers or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Crusaders FC) | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Carrick Rangers win by 2+ | 15% | 6.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Carrick Rangers and Crusaders FC recent form
Carrick Rangers
1W 1D 4L
Crusaders FC
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Carrick Rangers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Crusaders FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Carrick Rangers at home only, Crusaders FC away only.
Carrick Rangers vs Crusaders FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Carrick Rangers 3 · draws 2 · Crusaders FC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Carrick Rangers | 6-1 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-12-30 | Crusaders FC | 2-2 | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-08 | Carrick Rangers | 1-2 | Crusaders FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-08-09 | Crusaders FC | 3-4 | Carrick Rangers | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2024-12-30 | Carrick Rangers | 0-0 | Crusaders FC | Premiership |
| 2024-11-16 | Carrick Rangers | 3-0 | Crusaders FC | Premiership |
| 2024-08-31 | Crusaders FC | 2-1 | Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
| 2024-05-01 | Crusaders FC | 3-1 | Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
| 2023-12-30 | Crusaders FC | 2-0 | Carrick Rangers | Premiership |
| 2023-12-08 | Carrick Rangers | 0-1 | Crusaders FC | Premiership |
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