Portadown vs Limavady United: model vs market
| Source | Portadown | Draw | Limavady United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Edge | -10% | +4% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Limavady United below the model: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Portadown vs Limavady United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Limavady United, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portadown | 2.22 | 2.74 | +0.52 |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.57 | -0.02 |
| Limavady United | 2.71 | 2.23 | -0.48 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Portadown and Limavady United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Portadown / Limavady United)
- 0.66 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Portadown / Limavady United)
- 1.30 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portadown vs Limavady United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portadown goals. Columns: Limavady United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portadown vs Limavady United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portadown vs Limavady United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portadown | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Limavady United | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portadown or draw) | 58% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Limavady United) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Limavady United win by 2+ | 23% | 4.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Portadown and Limavady United recent form
Portadown
0W 1D 5L
Limavady United
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portadown at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Limavady United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Portadown at home only, Limavady United away only.
Portadown vs Limavady United head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Portadown 2 · draws 3 · Limavady United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-08 | Portadown | 2-0 | Limavady United | Irish Cup |
| 2018-11-24 | Limavady United | 2-2 | Portadown | Championship |
| 2018-09-07 | Portadown | 2-2 | Limavady United | Championship |
| 2018-01-13 | Limavady United | 1-1 | Portadown | Championship |
| 2017-08-19 | Portadown | 2-1 | Limavady United | Championship |