Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United: model vs market
| Source | Cliftonville FC | Draw | Ballymena United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Published | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | -7% | +3% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cliftonville FC, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cliftonville FC | 2.05 | 2.21 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.58 | -0.04 |
| Ballymena United | 3.01 | 2.75 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cliftonville FC and Ballymena United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.73
- Attack rating (Cliftonville FC / Ballymena United)
- 0.88 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Cliftonville FC / Ballymena United)
- 1.02 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cliftonville FC goals. Columns: Ballymena United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cliftonville FC | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Ballymena United | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cliftonville FC or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Ballymena United) | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cliftonville FC win by 2+ | 16% | 6.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cliftonville FC and Ballymena United recent form
Cliftonville FC
2W 0D 4L
Ballymena United
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cliftonville FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Ballymena United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cliftonville FC at home only, Ballymena United away only.
Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cliftonville FC 5 · draws 2 · Ballymena United 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Cliftonville FC | 2-2 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-01-13 | Ballymena United | 2-2 | Cliftonville FC | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-13 | Cliftonville FC | 3-2 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-04-05 | Cliftonville FC | 5-0 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2025-03-15 | Ballymena United | 1-0 | Cliftonville FC | Premiership |
| 2024-11-16 | Cliftonville FC | 0-1 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2024-09-21 | Ballymena United | 3-2 | Cliftonville FC | Premiership |
| 2024-01-20 | Cliftonville FC | 3-0 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2023-12-23 | Cliftonville FC | 2-0 | Ballymena United | Premiership |
| 2023-09-23 | Ballymena United | 0-2 | Cliftonville FC | Premiership |
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