Glentoran vs Dungannon Swifts: model vs market
| Source | Glentoran | Draw | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | -1% | +3% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.99.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Glentoran vs Dungannon Swifts odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Glentoran, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glentoran | 1.70 | 1.67 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.81 | -0.07 |
| Dungannon Swifts | 3.96 | 4.07 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Glentoran and Dungannon Swifts expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Glentoran / Dungannon Swifts)
- 1.01 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Glentoran / Dungannon Swifts)
- 0.92 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Glentoran vs Dungannon Swifts score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Glentoran goals. Columns: Dungannon Swifts goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Glentoran vs Dungannon Swifts goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Glentoran vs Dungannon Swifts
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Glentoran | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Glentoran or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Dungannon Swifts) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Glentoran win by 2+ | 29% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Glentoran and Dungannon Swifts recent form
Glentoran
2W 1D 3L
Dungannon Swifts
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Glentoran at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Dungannon Swifts away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Glentoran at home only, Dungannon Swifts away only.
Glentoran vs Dungannon Swifts head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Glentoran 6 · draws 0 · Dungannon Swifts 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Glentoran | 5-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-01-31 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-2 | Glentoran | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-11-21 | Glentoran | 0-1 | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-10-11 | Dungannon Swifts | 3-1 | Glentoran | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-04-19 | Dungannon Swifts | 3-2 | Glentoran | Premiership |
| 2025-02-08 | Glentoran | 1-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
| 2024-10-12 | Glentoran | 2-0 | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership |
| 2024-09-07 | Dungannon Swifts | 1-0 | Glentoran | Premiership |
| 2024-03-16 | Dungannon Swifts | 0-3 | Glentoran | Premiership |
| 2023-12-23 | Dungannon Swifts | 1-2 | Glentoran | Premiership |
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