SC Braga vs GIL Vicente preview
In the upcoming match between SC Braga and GIL Vicente, the 1X2 probabilities show SC Braga at 54%, GIL Vicente at 20%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. SC Braga has an expected goals figure of 1.04, while GIL Vicente sits at 0.95, indicating a tight match.
However, there are factors that could influence the outcome. SC Braga's recent form shows 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while GIL Vicente has managed 2 wins in the same period. Additionally, the chance for Over 2.5 goals stands at 32%, and both teams to score is at 41%, suggesting that scoring could be limited.
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente: model vs market
| Source | SC Braga | Draw | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Edge | -26% | +10% | +16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente odds movement
Median bookmaker price on SC Braga, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 1.56 | 1.53 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.95 | +0.15 |
| GIL Vicente | 5.92 | 6.33 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SC Braga and GIL Vicente expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (SC Braga / GIL Vicente)
- 0.79 / 0.90
- Defence rating (SC Braga / GIL Vicente)
- 0.87 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Braga goals. Columns: GIL Vicente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| GIL Vicente | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Braga or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or GIL Vicente) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win by 2+ | 14% | 6.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
SC Braga and GIL Vicente recent form
SC Braga
2W 1D 3L
GIL Vicente
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Braga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GIL Vicente away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Braga at home only, GIL Vicente away only.
Expected lineups
SC Braga lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 31 Bernardo Fontes
- 44 A. Bajrami
- 6 Vitor Carvalho
- 14 G. Lagerbielke
- 50 Diego Rodrigues
- 29 J. Gorby
- 8 João Moutinho
- 7 Diogo Travassos
- 10 Pau Victor
- 21 Ricardo Horta
- 19 J. Wind
Bench: Víctor Gómez, Fran Navarro, Gabriel Silva, Tiago Sá, M. Dorgeles, Sergio Barcia, D. Huseinbašić, B. Arrey-Mbi, E. Tıknaz, A. Barišić, Gabri Martínez, João Carvalho
GIL Vicente lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 30 Lucão
- 45 David Moreira
- 39 Jonathan Buatu
- 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 47 Ricardo Esgaio
- 86 Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 12 A. Lausen
- 20 Gil Pinto Martins
- 10 Santi García
- 77 Murilo
- 99 M. Kaba
Bench: A. Picornell, José Silva, Espigares, Zé Carlos, T. Touré, Walace, Joelson Fernandes, Gui Beleza, A. Moreira, M. Fernández, Gonçalo Maia Pereira, Samuel
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: SC Braga 5 · draws 2 · GIL Vicente 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | GIL Vicente | 2-1 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-09-14 | SC Braga | 0-1 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-02-09 | SC Braga | 2-0 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-09-01 | GIL Vicente | 0-0 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-03-16 | SC Braga | 2-1 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-10-28 | GIL Vicente | 3-3 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-04-16 | SC Braga | 1-0 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-10-30 | GIL Vicente | 0-1 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-03-13 | SC Braga | 0-1 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2021-10-25 | GIL Vicente | 0-1 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
Before and after this match
- SC Braga, previous: FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga prediction
- SC Braga, next: SC Braga – Gent, 2026-10-22
- GIL Vicente, previous: União Santarém v GIL Vicente analysis
- GIL Vicente, next: GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: odds and pick