GIL Vicente vs FC Porto preview
In the Primeira Liga fixture between GIL Vicente and FC Porto, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Porto at 60%, while GIL Vicente sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which aligns with FC Porto's expected goals of 1.51 compared to GIL Vicente's 1.11.
While both teams to score stands at 54%, GIL Vicente's recent form of W-W-D-L-L-D raises questions about their ability to find the net against a strong Porto side. Additionally, the head-to-head record shows FC Porto with 2 wins and GIL Vicente with none, indicating a challenging matchup for the home team.
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: model vs market
| Source | GIL Vicente | Draw | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 12% | 22% | 66% |
| Published | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Edge | +14% | +6% | -21% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 7.60 | 7.50 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 4.22 | 4.29 | +0.07 |
| FC Porto | 1.43 | 1.42 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
GIL Vicente and FC Porto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (GIL Vicente / FC Porto)
- 0.90 / 1.37
- Defence rating (GIL Vicente / FC Porto)
- 0.90 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GIL Vicente goals. Columns: FC Porto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GIL Vicente vs FC Porto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GIL Vicente | 16% | 6.24 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| FC Porto | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GIL Vicente or draw) | 39% | 2.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Porto) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win by 2+ | 23% | 4.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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GIL Vicente and FC Porto recent form
GIL Vicente
2W 2D 2L
FC Porto
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
GIL Vicente at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
FC Porto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: GIL Vicente at home only, FC Porto away only.
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: GIL Vicente 0 · draws 0 · FC Porto 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | FC Porto | 3-0 | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-18 | GIL Vicente | 0-2 | FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Vitória SC vs Maritimo — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Alverca vs Arouca 2026-10-24
- Estrela v Casa Pia — match page 2026-10-24
- Estoril v Moreirense — match page 2026-10-25
- Nacional vs SC Braga 2026-10-25
- Rio Ave v Famalicao — match page 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- GIL Vicente, previous: SC Braga v GIL Vicente analysis
- FC Porto, previous: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: odds and pick
- FC Porto, next: FC Porto v Napoli analysis