Vitória SC vs Maritimo preview
In the fixture between Vitória SC and Maritimo, the 1X2 probabilities show Vitória SC at 56%, while Maritimo sits at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% chance. However, both teams to score stands at 46%, indicating that a scoreless match is a possibility.
Vitória SC's recent form includes one win in their last five matches, while Maritimo has not won in their last five, drawing just twice. The expected goals are 1.18 for Vitória SC and 1.02 for Maritimo. With a confidence grade of C, the analysis suggests uncertainty in the outcome, meaning an unexpected result could occur.
Vitória SC vs Maritimo: model vs market
| Source | Vitória SC | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 33% | 33% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | -26% | +9% | +17% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.58, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Vitória SC vs Maritimo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vitória SC, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC | 1.73 | 1.52 | -0.21 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 4.03 | +0.40 |
| Maritimo | 4.95 | 6.00 | +1.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Vitória SC and Maritimo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Vitória SC / Maritimo)
- 0.63 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Vitória SC / Maritimo)
- 0.91 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vitória SC vs Maritimo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vitória SC goals. Columns: Maritimo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vitória SC vs Maritimo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vitória SC vs Maritimo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitória SC | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Maritimo | 20% | 5.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vitória SC or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Maritimo) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitória SC win by 2+ | 14% | 6.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vitória SC and Maritimo recent form
Vitória SC
1W 2D 3L
Maritimo
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vitória SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Maritimo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vitória SC at home only, Maritimo away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Alverca vs Arouca 2026-10-24
- Estrela v Casa Pia — match page 2026-10-24
- GIL Vicente vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Estoril v Moreirense — match page 2026-10-25
- Nacional vs SC Braga 2026-10-25
- Rio Ave v Famalicao — match page 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Vitória SC, previous: Recreativa de Lamelas v Vitória SC analysis
- Maritimo, previous: Alcochetense vs Maritimo prediction