Rio Ave vs Famalicao preview
In the upcoming match between Rio Ave and Famalicao, the 1X2 probabilities show Famalicao at 45% to win, compared to Rio Ave's 27% and a 28% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% probability.
While both teams to score stands at 53%, the expected goals suggest a tighter match, with Rio Ave at 1.19 and Famalicao at 1.35. Recent form indicates Rio Ave has won 2 of their last 6 matches, while Famalicao has only 1 win in their last 6. If Rio Ave improves their scoring, it could challenge the predicted outcome.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao: model vs market
| Source | Rio Ave | Draw | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Published | 27% | 29% | 45% |
| Edge | +7% | +1% | -7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Famalicao, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 4.10 | 3.75 | -0.35 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Famalicao | 1.88 | 2.00 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rio Ave and Famalicao expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Rio Ave / Famalicao)
- 0.86 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Rio Ave / Famalicao)
- 1.24 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rio Ave goals. Columns: Famalicao goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rio Ave vs Famalicao
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 27% | 3.76 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Famalicao | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rio Ave or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Famalicao) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Famalicao win by 2+ | 19% | 5.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Rio Ave and Famalicao recent form
Rio Ave
2W 1D 3L
Famalicao
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rio Ave at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Famalicao away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rio Ave at home only, Famalicao away only.
Rio Ave vs Famalicao head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Rio Ave 0 · draws 2 · Famalicao 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Rio Ave | 0-0 | Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Famalicao | 0-0 | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Vitória SC vs Maritimo — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Alverca vs Arouca 2026-10-24
- Estrela v Casa Pia — match page 2026-10-24
- GIL Vicente vs FC Porto — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Estoril v Moreirense — match page 2026-10-25
- Nacional vs SC Braga 2026-10-25
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Rio Ave, previous: Louletano – Rio Ave, 2026-10-17
- Famalicao, previous: Paredes v Famalicao analysis