Estrela vs Casa Pia preview
Estrela faces Casa Pia with a 55% chance of winning, while Casa Pia has just a 19% probability of taking the points. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Estrela's expected goals of 1.67 compared to Casa Pia's 0.85.
However, Estrela's recent form shows inconsistency, with two losses in their last three matches. Casa Pia, despite their lower chances, has won 1 of their last 6 games, which could lead to a surprise result. The model suggests a 46% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 48% probability for both teams to score, indicating that while Estrela is favored, the match could still be competitive.
Estrela vs Casa Pia: model vs market
| Source | Estrela | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.86.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Estrela vs Casa Pia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Estrela, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.85 | 1.70 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.66 | +0.20 |
| Casa Pia | 4.20 | 4.80 | +0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estrela and Casa Pia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Estrela / Casa Pia)
- 1.08 / 0.60
- Defence rating (Estrela / Casa Pia)
- 1.18 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estrela vs Casa Pia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estrela goals. Columns: Casa Pia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estrela vs Casa Pia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estrela vs Casa Pia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Casa Pia | 19% | 5.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estrela or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Casa Pia) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Estrela win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Estrela and Casa Pia recent form
Estrela
2W 2D 2L
Casa Pia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estrela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Casa Pia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estrela at home only, Casa Pia away only.
Estrela vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Estrela 2 · draws 0 · Casa Pia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Estrela | 4-0 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-11-01 | Casa Pia | 3-5 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Estrela, previous: Fazendense vs Estrela: odds and pick
- Casa Pia, previous: Alpendorada – Casa Pia, 2026-10-18